The year 2010 is in its last legs, so I would like to take this opportunity last year to succeed in China's eyes a little and also to venture an outlook to 2011.
2010 was a challenging year for China, which has its ups and downs and had brought forth a great many sensitive issues. Since we have, for example at the beginning of the year once the Google vs. censorship dispute. Beijing . How widely has been known to time, Google had refused to censor politically sensitive content, what a long dispute with the chines. Government had to follow. The hope of many that other companies could follow Google now remained - as expected - unfulfilled. On the contrary, Google is still represented in the Chinese search market, although still far behind in 2nd place behind the local provider, "Baidu," but still remains at the largest consumer market existing in the world. The censorship has to be now again gebäugt, such as who Tiananmen massacre on the chines. Google enters Web site, the Internet connection will be cut off as ever. In retrospect, the Google dispute was indeed important, as they are of a broad mass both at home and abroad aware of the extent and power of the Chinese censorship system was no good and internationally threw light on the regime. At the same time but one must also note that Google is obviously the whole thing from the beginning not really taken seriously and it essentially only on pure publicity had apart.
a result, in the spring followed already the next hurdles for China's leadership: The drought in Yunnan with numerous crop failures and simultaneous protests by workers across southern China. While one could counter the first event are relatively small, but it beat in terms of crisis management rather boldly and broadly, emergency care guarantee with water, could bite you in the government of the striking workers but rather the teeth. Notoriety, the Group Foxconn, an electronics company produces among other things, for Apple, whose working conditions were apparently so bad that about a dozen employees from the roof of several factory buildings fell to his death. Because in China there is no de facto unions, the government was even now on the train. The solution of the problem was a typical Chinese. The workers were already assigned to (inadequate) salary increases, while all the workers had to sign a contract in which they agreed not to commit suicide (!). Furthermore, were installed in all the factory buildings and fishing nets put out to tender special premiums for workers who report a suicidal colleague of oversight of operations. was actually solved the problem by not sure - even after resolution of these measures sprangen noch einige Arbeiter in den Tod. Geändert hat sich wenig bis gar nichts und auch für 2011 ist zu erwarten, dass es in ähnlicher Gangart weitergehen wird. Die Regierung ist daran interessiert den Einfluss der Gewerkschaften so gering wie möglich zu halten um somit mehr Produktioskapazitäten und ein höheres Wirtschaftswachstum – immerhin der wichtigste Legitimationsfaktor für das Regime – garantieren zu können.Gewerkschaften existieren zwar pro forma, sind jedoch zu fragmentiert und nicht unabghängig. Viele Fabriken haben ihre eigenen Fabriksgewerkschaften, in denen meistens der Produktionsleiter gleichzeitig auch der Vorsitzende der Fabriksgewerkschaft ist.
was after all these miseries, it at least once in early summer on an upward trend: the opening of the EXPO in Shanghai. That this event was a farce really, was in past entries ( see here & here ) of this blog already stated ausführlist. As with the 2008 Olympics it understood the government to use the massive event as a propaganda tool and thus starting a new 'feel-good campaign. The man also needed at the time, but were circulating at that time the first reports of a strongly stunted economic growth von „nur“ ca 7%. Doch Die EXPO sollte nicht das einzige Massenspektakel des Jahres 2010 bleiben. Denn im November – just 2 Wochen nach Ende der EXPO – kam es mit den Asian Games in Guangzhou zu einem beinahe nahtlosen Übergang von einem Wohlfühlevent zum nächsten, wenn auch in viel kleineren Dimensionen. Getreu dem alten „Brot und Spiele“-Motto wird es auch nächstes Jahr wieder einige Großveranstaltungen geben. Konkret wären das im Juli die Schwimmweltmeisterschaften in Shanghai sowie die im August stattfindende Sommer Universiade in Shenzhen. Langweilig wird den Chinesen also sicherlich nicht werden.
Bereits im Sommer kam die erste wirkliche internationle Bewährungsprobe für die chines. Regierung: der Koreakonflikt. Ausgehend bereits von der angebl. seitens Nordkorea verursachten Versenkung einer südkoreanischen Korvette und dem wenige Monate später folgenden Beschuss südkoreanischer Inseln durch nordkoreanische Artillerie, fand sich Peking erstmals zwischen den Fronten wider. Als de facto Schutzmacht von Nordkorea geriet man schnell von den westlichen Staaten unter Druck: man solle seinen Einfluss auf Nordkorea endlich ausnutzen und endlich im Sinne eines Global Players handeln, hieß es v.a seitens der USA. China wählte den sicheren Mittelweg und versuchte in der Rolle des Vermittlers zwischen den Fronten auf Diaolog und Deeskalation set - a wise strategy to China, no matter how the conflict should come, bring on the safe side arguments would. For while China, for "emergency six-party talks" strongly made, and all asked to the negotiating table, involved South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in some populist arguments and actions (many South Koreans it had accused too late and not hard enough on the attack North Korea responded to), which added further heat up the atmosphere and the whole war scenario even a hint of campaign and electoral votes. This was in turn benefit from Beijing, as it is now the role of the guilty loose on Seoul could move freely along the lines of "we were ready for negotiations, but if South Korea does not want and would rather focuses on populist campaign rhetoric ...". What will develop in 2011 in this respect is more difficult to say, especially because the North Korean regime is considered unpredictable. But the fact is that China is interested in helping out for fear of huge refugee flows to the maintenance of North Korea and a reunification with South Korea and thus face in the future as a mediator in this conflict.
was the middle of this international debate another disaster actually almost at: The oil spill from Dalian in July. Two oil pipelines were exploded near the northeastern port city Dalian to this day unexplained causes after which vast amounts of oil flowed into the sea. Although the extent of the disaster was not comparable to the Deepwater Horizon incident, but it was the largest oil spill in the chines. History. The manner in which the Enlightenment of the disaster was handled, in turn, threw a pale light on the Chinese environmental criminal law or its enforcement. Specifically, said two pipelines were in fact owned by the state oil company China National Petroleum. The government-appointed commission of inquiry came - wenig überraschend – zu dem Schluss, dass niemand spezifisch als Schuldiger in Frage kommt. Gleichzeitig wurde jedoch auch paradoxerweise festgehalten, dass menschliches Versagen der Auslöser für die Katastrophe gewesen sei. Unzählige Menschen wie z.B. Fischer, die durch hunderte Kilometer verschmutzter Küstenlandschaften einen erheblichen wirtschaftlichen Schaden erlitten, wurden somit um ihr Entschädigungsgeld gebracht. Interessant wäre gewesen, wie die Regierung mit einem ähnlichen Unglück umgegangen wäre, wenn es z.B. von einem ausländischen Investor verursacht worden wäre.
Der Herbst war dann turn an ambivalent period of the year in which Japan should play a particularly important role. On one side overtook China in the fall of the land of the rising sun in terms of economic performance are thus replaced Japan as 2nd strongest economy in the world from. On the other hand, however, there was the conflict over the Senkaku Islands , an island group is claimed by China, Japan and Taiwan, however, is currently controlled by Japan. When the Japanese Coast Guard crew one day the arrest of a Chinese fishing boat (but released them shortly thereafter) and threatened the captain with a lawsuit, went high in China, the waves. Spontaneously occurred in several chines. Anti-Japan protest towns trains such as had not seen her for a long time. The Chinese leadership and the media trumpeted great sounds and threatened with serious diplomatic consequences. Finally gave in Japan, the captain was released and waived all charges. The Senkaku islands but is still controlled today by the Japan Coast Guard de facto. How will it go in this regard? Although such conflicts are not space in the East Asian commonplace, but not really the exception. Not only China but also with South Korea Japan continues to slip in dispute over several islands. China is well aware of his influence as an economic power and plays this trump card in such conflicts always learns from. It is likely therefore to continue with similar actions.
There remains the last major dominant theme of 2010: The disapproval of China Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the chines. Dissident Liu Xiaobo, an affair that impressive, China's willingness to suppress anti-government opinions on the show and this blog in the past was also addressed in detail (see here & here ). In the future, a similar approach on the part of the party and little or no political Reforms in the sense expected of democratization. As hard as it sounds, but China is still a state run by way of regime in which opponents mercilessly persecuted, imprisoned and executed or often fall victim to the illegal organ trade. Sorry, can economically promising chinese consumer market, many Western investors like to ignore such atrocities all too easily. In the future.
They were, therefore, the great chines. Topics of the year 2010 when this list may not be complete. Perhaps even more so to round off the year of Google China published list of "most wanted Tag of the Year. And what strikes at first sight: the people in China are likely some other things were of interest. There are therefore no real political issues the keywords in the top (probably due to the strict censorship rules), most jobs come from the entertainment sector with terms such as "Baidu" (Chinese search engine), "QQ" (chinese messenger program) and " Taobao "(Chinese Shopping Website). And "Avatar" as the most sought-after film can be found high on the list, followed closely by "Where Ju" ("Dwelling Narrowness"), one of the most successful chines. TV series of all time, in which the red-hot for years Theme of voluntary land price explosion in China as well as the corruption of some party cadres is discussed. Despite the sensitive INHAT the series was not prohibited, but slightly modified: 3 episodes were censored because all too obvious criticism of the system completely, the corrupt party officials - one of the main plate Darts - was in the censored version is no longer a party member. The popularity of the series did this is no smear, and thus shows that real policy issue of the Chinese is currently the most important: inflation and the explosion of housing costs - now in Beijing and Shanghai are on the list of the 10 most expensive cities in the world - to warn many experts to burst with a could fall looming housing bubble that is linked in the Ernst case, the whole world economy with China in a new world economic crisis on an unprecedented scale. China's government has unfortunately taken little or not at all effective measures to combat inflation and stubbornly refuses to revalue the yuan at last. This holds despite the more optimistic growth forecasts for 2011, a large potential for conflict in the coming year in itself.
I have addressed in this annual review / outlook some current problems in China. Many have already been addressed sufficiently in this blog, but others hardly. I would like next year on this blog more especially with the chines. Legal system and its gaps, fuzziness and errors, but also look at its benefits. The environmental aspect is not neglected, but the pollution plays an increasingly important role as a cause of social unrest. So 2011 will be an exciting year, I hope you will as well in the future and stop by here. Cheers!
