Flattering Overweight

Tipping the scales

that from North Korea - his time of George W. Bush as part of the axis of evil means - from and sent to various test missile threats or the south / sky are nothing new and is excited to now only a very few. But given the current tense situation between North and South Korea will even die-hard analysts of the East Asian region into a sweat.

Almost a month has been the downfall of Cheonan, a corvette of the South Korean Navy, already passed, but has the overall situation still on the Korean Peninsula still not calmed down, quite the contrary: South Korea does now open to the north for the fall in Cheonan, has prepared a Commission of Inquiry was recovered in the salvage of the shipwreck remains of North Korean torpedo labels. At the same time announces the south end of the mutual trade and the resumption of propaganda broadcasts via radio and speakers on the inter-Korean border to the north across. In return, North Korea has all the blame on his own, South Korea is threatening a "holy war", all contacts cuts to the south and put its army on alert. All this happened within about 30 days.

surprise As the Sinking of the Cheonan even came this new outbreak of the Korean conflict for the world community, as set out on de-escalation is currently no one a better and especially long-term solution passable. Even in South Korea's population and politics are divided when it comes to solutions, one is already disagree with the question of guilt itself. While many people "in retaliation for the victims of the Cheonan demand also doubt many South Koreans a North Korean participation in Cheonan destruction and wonder how in a so huge explosion still ink residues on the outer shell of an unexploded torpedoes found and as a North Korean symbolism should be identifiable. In addition, South Korea may send the request of the North's own experts and analysts to wreck investigation has rejected. But this offender discourse with all its gray areas, making the discussion in the South Korean population of upcoming consequences for the north complicated enough - was already in the past substantially more peaceful times, the population in dealing with the question of how the North is always at odds.

extent to which the South Korean population has now been split with the inauguration of new President Lee Myung-bak in 2008 AD clearly which prompt the so-called sunshine policy of his predecessor's predecessor Kim Dae-jung ended and ushered in an era of tougher stance against the North Korean regime. Even then, there was massive internal political discussions on the question is how to provoke their northern neighbors to support and generally have to deal with it. One question that still characterizes the sükoreanische domestic politics, while liberal forces intensified relations and strive for reunification with the North, represented the conservative forces of a tougher foreign policy position and then maintaining the status quo. It is argued here, especially with any political, social and economic problems of reunification - the cost on the part of the South in the event of a reunion after all, is estimated to be as unimaginable 5 trillion U.S. dollars.

But in addition to South Korea there is a general of the whole East Asian region under the impression that no one really really decent solutions have juice. While the U.S. is seeking a de facto protector of South Korea for a diplomatic solution, trying Japan - which the North Korean regime as destabilizers of the economic region have long been a thorn im Auge war - mit härteren Sanktionen oder evtl. sogar einem Militärschlag zu reagieren, den dafür notwendigen Sitz im permanenten UN Sicherheitsrat besitzt man jedoch nicht. Und selbst wenn: ein militärischer Konflikt wäre für alle Beteiligten von Nachteil: Für Nordkoreas Regime wäre ein Krieg das letzte Aufbäumen (inkl. eventueller Atomschläge) vor dem tiefen Fall, für Südkoreas sich langsam wieder eholende Wirtschaft wäre ein Militäreinsatz ebenfalls alles andere als wünschenswert – mal ganz abgesehen vom Kriegsunwillen der eigenen Bevölkerung . Auch die USA mit ihrem diplomatischen Lösungsansatz werden in die Klemme gebracht: denn außer gut Zureden könnte man das nordkoreanische Regime nur noch auf die „Liste der Schurkenstaaten“ setzen, damit einen politischen Schachzug Obamas anno 2008 rückgängig machen und somit letztendlich die in Ostasien ohnehin schon angeschlagene politische Glaubwürdigkeit der Obama-Administration endgültig ruinieren.

Generell bekommt man also den Eindruck als ob alle Beteiligten bei dem derzeitigen kurz bevorstehenden Worst Case Szenario im selben Boot sitzen. Das Zünglein an der Waage könnte – wie so oft – China als einflussreicher quasi-Verbündeter und wichtigster Handelspartner des nordkoreanischen Regimes sein. Denn auch das Reich der Mitte dürfte als aufstrebende Economic power through a military border conflict with all its consequences (regional destabilization, migration, etc.) can be anything but pleased. And were it not for the one-off or at least officially remaining communist Idelogie common of the two countries would have the chines. Government of the North Korean regime, which like a log on the leg hampered China's economic and foreign policy efforts, already abandoned long ago.

The Communist Party of China always speaks so proud of how we are within half a century from an agrarian state to so-called global players has developed on the world stage. Now it is time to prove whether or behind these words are actually deeds or self-congratulation just empty phrases.